Selasa, September 30, 2008

Tren Asia 20-30 tahun ke depan


Asia Future Shock

by Michel Backman

The book tells the future significant trends and developments of Asia for the next 25 - 30 years. This is a good insights for strategists and business planners.


Key take away Asian trends from the book are :


1. India's population may exceed China's by 2030 when their respective population reaches 1.5 billion.

2. Nuclear powered energy sources will be on the rise for both China and India as current coal burning energy form creates environmental crisis for China especially.

3. Both countries will see a combined surplus of over 250 million males over females.

4. China will have the most number of English speaking people in the world.

5. Japan's economy will not improve due to its diminishing population whereby it will decline by as much as 25 million people compared to now.

6. Singapore will be the world's offshore clandestine financial safe haven while China will be the world's premier private banking centre.

7. Indian conglomerates are moving out of India through acquisitions to escape difficult business environment back home.

8. Vietnam will be the new Guandong of China (eventhough it does not have the size to be the new China) while Myanmar could be transformed to follow Vietnam.

9. World medical treatments and cutting edge medical researches will move to Asia to countries such as China, Singapore and Thailand as well as thriving medical tourism.

10. Korea will reunify as the North will not survive on its own while the South sees the need to unify for cheaper labour (South Korea's population is the fastest aging population in the world) and socio economic expansion.

11. Countries with stiffened democracies such as China, Vietnam and Singapore prosper more than truer democracy such as India and Indonesia.

12. These stiffened democracies use the internet as a tool to monitor and control its population. And as such, the governments will encourage the proliferation of internet penetration to its population.

13. Indonesia due to its unstable law and governance issues will not attract investments significantly.

14. Water crisis will loom for countries such as China and India and will affect crop production in China making it needing to import more.

15. The economies will be borderless with cross border migration a common thing.

16. Oil economies will be affected severely as oil dries up in Indonesia and Malaysia.

17. Chinese corporates will expand significantly overseas especially to third world countries such as Africa.

18. Influx of Chinese tourists overseas.

19. China is structurely well developed compared to India due to the former investing nearly 7 times more on infrastructure than the latter and such investments in infrastructure if planned correctly can be self financing.

20. Growing corporate ownership by charities set up by the current wealthy individual corporate owners.

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